This article aims at estimating leading indicators of the American economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chains models, a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). These models provide a robust and reliable framework to...

This work aims at analysing the dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, using a semi-structural VAR to determine the sources of its macroeconomic fluctuations. The results obtained point out that the macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon, even though influenced by external shocks,...

La littérature sur l'instabilité macroéconomique couvre un champ extrêmement vaste qui se révèle par le spectre très large de mesures utilisées pour appréhender ce phénomène. Le choix de la mesure de l'instabilité macroéconomique apparait généralement peu discuté sous le...

In this paper, we study the dynamic propagation of the output and the existence of a significant n nominal component in the Solow residual using a DGE model. Nominal wage rigidity and labor retention are introduced as internal propagation mechanisms. The economy is disrupted by technological,...

In this paper, we study real wage fluctuations in response to monetary shocks. We estimate five different models corresponding to five sets of monetary policy restrictions. Monetary shocks are measured by innovations in the nominal interest rate, total reserves and non-borrowed reserves. Our...

In this paper, we study the dynamic propagation of the output and the existence of a significant n nominal component in the Solow residual using a DGE model. Nominal wage rigidity and labor retention are introduced as internal propagation mechanisms. The economy is disrupted by technological,...

This work aims to analyse the dynamics of macroeconomic fluctuations in Cameroon and to determine the resulting business and growth cycles turning point chronology. The construction of a reference turning point chronology poses some problems related to the choice of the methods to be used. In...

The CAPM theory provides a measure of the sensitivity of an asset to the market called the systematic risk. The Beta of equity is estimated by its market line. According to the OLS hypothesis, it is stable over time but this is not empirically verified. Many studies are in favour with this fact...

Following the high variability of floating exchange rates after the collapse of the Bretton-Wood System, policymakers have increasingly relied on weighted exchange rate indexes (nominal effective exchange rate index) or indexes of competitiveness (real effective exchange rate or...

The economists provide forecasts in connection with future economic facts by using statistical data to conduct these forecasts. The goal of this study is to provide an academic paper for the universities in the analysis of forecasting. We analyzed and estimated the coefficient of the reserve...