This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest...

We analyse the decision of an agent to invest in new industrial activities the con- sequences of which on people's health and the environment are initially unknown. The agent does not have the possibility of delaying her/his investment but s/he gets the opportunity to acquire information in...

We study investment and consumption decisions in a dynamic game under learning. To that end, we present a model in which agents not only extract a resource for consumption, but also invest in technology to improve the future stock. At the same time, the agents learn about the stochastic process...

Financial, managerial, and medical decisions often involve alternatives whose possible outcomes have uncertain probabilities. In contrast to alternatives whose probabilities are known, these uncertain alternatives offer the benefits of learning. In repeat-choice situations, such learning brings...

We hypothesized that framing possible outcomes of decisions in terms of gains vs. losses should increase the salience of information that is incongruent in valence (counter-regulation principle: gain frame – negativity bias, loss frame – positivity bias). These incongruent attentional biases...

This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest...

A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

In an asset-pricing model, risk-averse agents need to forecast the conditional variance of a stock's return. A near-rational restricted perceptions equilibrium exists in which agents believe prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate...

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they generate forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock's return. Recursive...

This paper is an attempt to go beyond dichotomic taxonomies of the concept of uncertainty. It argues for the need to distinguish between at least two types of situation that have been opposed to what neoclassical economics deals with under the rubric of uncertainty or risk. These situations are...