Many ways exist to measure and model financial asset volatility. In principle, as the frequency of the data increases, the quality of forecasts should improve. Yet, there is no consensus about a "true" or "best" measure of volatility. In this paper we propose to jointly consider absolute daily...

Incomes policy started with the San Valentine's decree of 1984, which marks the beginning of the process that led to the abolishment of Scala Mobile and reached its peak with the Protocollo d'intesa of 1993. The work proposes to study by cointegration analysis the effects of incomes policy on...

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading...

Introduzione – 1. La domanda di calcio in Italia: i fatti stilizzati – 2. La domanda di calcio: letteratura ed evidenze empiriche – 3.1 La stima dei per game tickets – 3.2 La stima dei seasonal tickets – 4. Conclusioni

The paper surveys different approaches to the estimation of the underground economy. First, the focus is on the methodologies adopted by the Italian and French Statistical Institutes, respectively based on the exhaustive estimate of the labour input and on tax compliance data. Secondly, we...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...