In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...

Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) can be used to trace the dynamics of non–negative valued processes. Interactions between several such processes are accommodated by the vector MEM and estimated by maximum likelihood (Gamma marginals with copula functions) or by Generalized Method of Moments....

In financial time series analysis we encounter several instances of non–negative valued processes (volumes, trades, durations, realized volatility, daily range, and so on) which exhibit clustering and can be modeled as the product of a vector of conditionally autoregressive scale factors and a...

The Multiplicative Error Model introduced by Engle (2002) for non-negative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with positive support. In this paper we propose a multivariate extension of such a model, by taking...

Financial time series analysis has focused on data related to market trading activity. Next to the modeling of the conditional variance of returns within the GARCH family of models, recent attention has been devoted to other variables: first, and foremost, volatility measured on the basis of...

Forecasting Budget expenditures using Budget balance intra annual data

The release of the World Health Report 2000 has brought to the fore the concept of responsiveness as an indicator of health system performance. Responsiveness relates to a system's ability to respond to the legitimate expectations of potential users about non-health enhancing aspects of care...

The release of the World Health Report 2000 has brought to the fore the concept of re sponsiveness as an indicat or of health system performance . Responsiveness relat es to a system’s ability to respond to the legitimate expectations of potential users about non - health enhancing aspects of...