La psicologia mostra che la probabilità soggettiva associata ad eventi economici futuri viene distorta in modo sistematico, rispetto a quella oggettiva, da elementi psicologici diffusi e persistenti. Lo stesso vale per l'interpretazione retrospettiva dei fatti economici. In particolare, si...

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the...

The paper compares different procedures to convert in ordinary quantitative indicators the results of qualitative tendency surveys. The main result is that different procedures tend to produce quantitative indicators with a very similar dynamics. A new quantification method based on the...

The essay analyzes the decision process in economics and its relationship with the concept of rationality starting from the theory of rational choice, that is, a systemic approach based on the formal axiomatic method applied mainly in the microeconomic field, which has become the heart of...

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

In econometric models specified as systems of simultaneous equations, forecast errors can be regarded as random variables whose variances can be investigated, analyzed and estimated. This book summarizes results available in the literature for linear and nonlinear econometric models, when...

Problems related to deterministic solution of nonlinear econometric models are well known in the literature. The use of mean (average) stochastic simulation results has been usually proposed to solve the problem of bias. This raises however other types of problems, like possible non-coherent...

Country risk and sovereign risk are two of the most important topics in risk management. The first part of this work introduces these concepts and shows the differences between them. The following chapters fit linear and ordinal regression models to a data-set with more than 100 countries, where...

Nonlinear time series models can exhibit components such as long range trends and seasonalities that may be modeled in a flexible fashion. The resulting unconstrained maximum likelihood estimator can be too heavily parameterized and suboptimal for forecasting purposes. The paper proposes the use...

In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a dynamic model with a flexible trend...