Brownlees, Christian T.; Gallo, Giampiero - Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni … - 2008
In this paper we address the issue of forecasting Value–at–Risk (VaR) using different volatility measures: realized … volatility, bipower realized volatility, two scales realized volatility, realized kernel as well as the daily range. We propose a …-Spline Multiplicative Error Model. Exploiting UHFD volatility measures, VaR predictive ability is considerably improved upon relative to a …