This discussion paper intends to complement the analyzes carried out in Gobetti (2015), updating the diagnosis of the development of fiscal balances of the Brazilian public sector from the new series of GDP released by IBGE and statistics "above the line" that incorporate regional level of...

This text aims to qualify the debate on the need for fiscal adjustment in Brazil, showing that the trend that takes place - at this conjuncture, as in other past - a low quality setting, based on cutting investments and / or increased tax burden, it is almost inevitable in the face of public...

This paper estimates the primary structural balance and the fiscal impulse for the Brazilian public administrations from 1997 to 2010. We performed two adjustments: i) initially, one-off measures (including those resulting from creative accounting) were identified; and, ii) after this correction,...

The objective of this paper is to analyze the role of fiscal policy in the determinants of the sovereign spreads of a group of 23 emerging market countries in the period 1995-2008 focusing on two matters: i) fiscal policy sustainability, known as the accumulation of primary budget surplus, that...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts derived from the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities during 2015 in Brazil. This is done within a DSGE model with a detailed public sector developed and calibrated for the Brazilian economy. The gradual recognition of these fiscal...

A new state debt cycle occurred mainly through external and contracted credit operations with federal banks from 2008, after a long period with few loans and debt stock fall. It is argued that exogenous macroeconomic factors were essential in the downward trend of the debt in the early 2000s,...

This article estimates the stance of fiscal policy using the framework of conditional forecasting to evaluate the stance in Brazil since 1997. This indicator is measured as the deviation of forecast of the output gap conditional to the observed values and steady-state values of the instruments...

This article estimates fiscal costs derived from the federal government industrial policy between 2004 and 2016. We focus on the measurement of "tax expenditures", something inedited in Brazilian economic literature on the subject. We also analysis tax exemptions that, for legal reasons, are not...

The results presented in the text show that, by curbing the growth of primary expenditures, Constitutional Amendment 95 has the potential to stabilize and to reduce general government gross debt, thus guaranteeing the sustainability of the Brazilian public debt. The positive effects of a greater...