The international financial crises of the 1990s rose doubts on the usefulness of sovereign ratings. The present paper has two aims: identify whether sovereign ratings can be predicted using a small set of macroeconomic fundamentals; and test whether sovereign spreads can be predicted by...

The fit of empirical Taylor Rules to Brazilian data improves if we consider the hypothesis of interest rate inertia. Inertia seems to be part of monetary policy of several countries and reflects the action of Central Banks of not adjusting once-for-all to changing conditions. This article...

The development of the process for liberalization and integration of the domestic markets on relation to the international markets along the last decades and the increasing volatility of capital flows resulted in the necessity of a higher coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. After...

Financial and currency crises: comparing Latin America and East Asia - This article focuses on the sources of vulnerability to currency and financial crises as well as on their degree of severity in Latin American and East Asian economies. Evidence based on a number of indicators reckoned for...

Starting with Lehman Brother’s demise in September 2008, the Brazilian real fell 42% vis-à-vis the US dollar. Such large exchange rate depreciation would typically cheer exporters up. However, it was later found that many export firms, including multibillion dollar ones, had suffered large...