This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

Some programs and research networks are dealing with topics associated to the automtive sector and they observe one of the most significative sectores of modern economies. Because of that is so interesting to forecast some possible changes in an horizon of 10 to 20 years. But this exercse must...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

The paper uses the procedure developed first by Campbell (1987) to test, for the Brazilian economy, the proposition that the balance of the current account is negatively related to the present value of the future changes of the GDP net of the investment and consumption of the government. Within...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of economic downturn with the crisis of 2009 on the Brazilian economy, especially on activity sectors and states. To get a consistent picture of these impacts, which takes into account economic macroeconomic indicators and sectoral data (exports...

This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit...

The main purpose of this work is to provide a panoramic and almost exhaustive view on the "rational expectations hypothesis" literature published until 1992. Several issues less well known are emphasized. Many results and comments are integrated and presented in a somewhat innovative fashion.

This works studies evidences banks' daily behavior pattern of managing reserves, analyses the rationality behind such observed behavior and its main influencing factors. This study contributes to the existent literature in two fronts: proposing a methodology for analyzing bank reserves' daily...

No mercado de trabalho, observa-se que os trabalhadores de empresas com elevado risco de falência têm salários mais baixos que a média. Aparentemente, esta observação é contrária ao previsto pela teoria financeira relativamente a agentes racionais e avessos ao risco que prevê que os...