The main purpose of this work is to provide a panoramic and almost exhaustive view on the "rational expectations hypothesis" literature published until 1992. Several issues less well known are emphasized. Many results and comments are integrated and presented in a somewhat innovative fashion.

This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

No mercado de trabalho, observa-se que os trabalhadores de empresas com elevado risco de falência têm salários mais baixos que a média. Aparentemente, esta observação é contrária ao previsto pela teoria financeira relativamente a agentes racionais e avessos ao risco que prevê que os...

This works studies evidences banks' daily behavior pattern of managing reserves, analyses the rationality behind such observed behavior and its main influencing factors. This study contributes to the existent literature in two fronts: proposing a methodology for analyzing bank reserves' daily...

This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the...

This article analyses the behaviour of the brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar) and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (november) to 2004 (may). We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called “Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado”, which has...

Three nominal exchange rate series are presented, for the mil-reis and the dollar in relation to sterling, and for the mil-reis in relation to the dollar. For each of these, two series are constructed: current rates and long-term rates, representing the secular tendency of these exchange rates....

This paper shows estimates of the optimal level of foreign reserves for Brazil between the first quarter of 2004 and the third trimester of 2012, by applying the new Jeanne e Rancière (2011) framework, using different scenarios. The estimates of the optimal holdings of this asset are calculated...

This paper aims to compare two different methodologies to estimate exchange rate misalignment. The first methodology consists in using multivariate time series techniques and a model with domestic variables. The second methodology consists in Pesaran's Global Vector Error Correction Model with...

In this paper, the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices is explored by estimating the impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures market. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, results show that external macroeconomic announcements...