In this paper we compare two types of models for forecasting Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks. We consider models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend. We show...

Following methodological approach proposed by Edwards, the paper estimates empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for the period 1995–2003. ERER is defined as the relative price of non-tradables to tradables consistent with the simultaneous achievement of internal and...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this paper we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to study the response of Russian macroeconomic indicators to external shocks. The model includes individual models for the world's largest economies and a model for the oil market. Our specification takes into account the...

This paper analyzes integration of 13 regions constituting Siberia with all country’s regions. The criterion of market integration is the law of one price. The data analyzed are time series of the cost of the staples basket over 2001–2015. Pairs of regional markets are divided into four...

The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...