Attempts to establish a link between inflation and economic growth are made quite regularly. The aim of such attempts is not only to determine the impact of inflation on economic growth but also to assess efficiency of the inflation rein-in policy, for example, the policy of inflation targeting....

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

World oil prices in 2020 have undergone tangible shocks, which are associated primarily with two events - the collapse of the OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the BVAR model of the oil market, the quantitative role of these events in the dynamics of oil prices was assessed, and...

Russian Abstract: Мировые цены на нефть в 2020 г. претерпели ощутимые потрясения, которые связывают прежде всего с двумя событиями – срывом сделки ОПЕК+ и пандемией...

In 2003, President of Russia Vladimir Putin set the task of doubling the GDP. However, this task is yet to be accomplished. Why this goal has not been achieved yet? What needs to be done to double Russia’s GDP? To answer these questions is exactly what this paper sets out to do. We can see...

People recognized the important role played by money a long time ago. But it was only approximately 50 years ago that Milton Friedman convincingly proved that change in the quantity of money in the economy may have a very serious effect on the GDP. This paper reveals a most intimate non-linear...

In this paper we compare two types of models for forecasting Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks. We consider models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend. We show...