In this paper we compare two types of models for forecasting Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks. We consider models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend. We show...

The article shows that actual public expenditure in the period of rapid oil prices growth of the 2000s was less than optimal level in Russia. The macroeconomic model of Russian economy is the basis of current research. The main mechanism of growth in an optimum scenario is associated with the...

Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors....

Russian Abstract: Оценка моделей с изменяющимися во времени параметрами нашла широкое распространение в макроэкономических исследованиях, реализуемых в течение...

Russian Abstract: Данная работа посвящена изучению двух важных элементов трансмиссионного механизма монетарной политики в России в 2010-2014 гг.: эффекту переноса...

This study examines methods for analyzing and forecasting the retention of active subscribers in the telecommunications industry using various criteria for subscriber activity. The results demonstrate that the retention dynamics of an active subscriber base can be effectively modeled using a...

The solution of issues related to the study of the processes of sustainable development of regional-industry systems in the context of the transformation of transnational supply chains is a very relevant research direction in modern economic thought. This, of course, is due to the intensifying...

Externalities generated as a result of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation, expressed in the transformation of export-import operations, predetermine the emergence of risks and threats to the sustainable development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. This...

The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional economic systems of the Volga Federal District to restrictions on the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian...

The aim of the work is to develop and test methodological approaches to the empirical assessment of the prospects for regional economic dynamics in the context of disruption of supply chains of industry imports. The object of the study is one of the most developed regions of Russia - the...