The paper examines the quality of forecasts of Russian GDP and its components (household consumption, investment, exports and imports) using a model with Bayesian shrinkage of time-varying parameters (TVP) based on hierarchical normal-gamma prior. Such models account for the possible...

This paper investigates the influence of both concentration and foreign banks expansion in Russian banking sector on the level of its competition. The estimation of competition is based on widely used non-structural methodology of Panzar-Rosse H-statistic (Rosse, Panzar, 1977; Panzar, Rosse, 1987)...

Russian Abstract: Предложен комплекс опережающих индикаторов инновационной динамики России и их многокомпонентные оценки для 78 регионов за период 2005-2017 годов....

Russian abstract: В втором квартале 2020 г. безработица в России умеренно росла, в третьем и четвертом кварталах, несмотря на восстановление экономики, она оказалась...

Russian Abstract: В работе исследуется вопрос использования моделей панельных данных для прогнозирования роста производства отраслей российской обрабатывающей...

In this paper we consider a set of machine learning and econometrics models, namely: Elastic Net, Random Forest, XGBoost and SSVS as applied to nowcasting a large dataset of USD volumes of Russian exports and imports by commodity group. We use lags of the volumes of export and import commodity...

Dynamic models of economy contain a lot of parameters. Such models seldom manage to be identified so precisely that results of calculation have appeared are close to historical data. Parallel calculations facilitate the decision of a problem of identification, owing to essential acceleration of...

The article shows that actual public expenditure in the period of rapid oil prices growth of the 2000s was less than optimal level in Russia. The macroeconomic model of Russian economy is the basis of current research. The main mechanism of growth in an optimum scenario is associated with the...

Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors....

This study examines methods for analyzing and forecasting the retention of active subscribers in the telecommunications industry using various criteria for subscriber activity. The results demonstrate that the retention dynamics of an active subscriber base can be effectively modeled using a...