In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

In this work we build a Bayesian vector autoregression model to estimate the impact of global economic activity shocks, supply shocks in the global oil market, as well as speculative oil shocks on key macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy: GDP, household consumption, fixed capital...

World oil prices in 2020 have undergone tangible shocks, which are associated primarily with two events - the collapse of the OPEC+ deal and the coronavirus pandemic. Based on the BVAR model of the oil market, the quantitative role of these events in the dynamics of oil prices was assessed, and...

Russian Abstract: Мировые цены на нефть в 2020 г. претерпели ощутимые потрясения, которые связывают прежде всего с двумя событиями – срывом сделки ОПЕК+ и пандемией...

This paper examines the relationship between the Russian ruble/US dollar exchange rate and global oil prices using autoregressive model with Markovian regime shifts. Empirical analysis on daily data for 2009–2019 shows that exchange rate dynamics is best described by three regimes,...

We compare the short- and the long-run consequences of Russia's Energy Strategy to 2020 and of the project of the Strategy to 2030 with a hypothetical scenario of the weak-sustainable oil extraction, starting from 2008 and providing asymptotically constant per capita consumption in the long run....

In 2022, there was a sharp change in the geopolitical situation in the world, which significantly affected both the global economy as a whole, and the energy and gas industry in particular. European countries have begun to refuse to supply Russian natural gas. The European Union has developed...