Russian Abstract: Позиция сторонников смягчения политики Банка России следующая: если денежные власти развитых стран отказываются от своих принципов, то зачем тогда...

Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia - the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of...

The paper aims at reconstructing the regulator’s loss function both qualitatively and quantitatively. The main idea is to deduct from the observed behavior of the monetary policy instrument the underlying preferences that explain such behavior. In order to obtain quantitative results we use...

Russian Abstract: Анализ долговой устойчивости в рамках базового сценария свидетельствует о том, что динамика внешнего и государственного долга в перспективе...

The English version of this paper can be found at http://ssrn.com/abstract=4030640.Russian Abstract: Кризис 2020-го года продемонстрировал высокую чувствительность развивающихся стран на всех континентах к...

This paper investigates the possibility of conducting an unconventional monetary policy of Quantitative easing (QE) at high interest rates using the example and experience of Russia. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has raised the key interest rate on three occasions during the 7...

Key discussions regarding Russia's economic policy are now taking place between the two camps of economists. The foremost proponent of the ideas in the first camp is Alexey Kudrin, former Vice-Prime Minister, PhD in Economics. The second camp has crystalized itself around Sergey Glaziev, Advisor...

Russian Abstract: Расширение программ государственной поддержки экономики в США вызывает опасения относительно ускорения инфляции и роста стоимости активов не только...

The theorem of existence of the ruptures in the probability scale has been proved for a discrete case. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula...

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging practical task. In particular, models with a large number of explanatory variables on relatively short samples can often overfit in-sample and, thus, forecast poorly. In this paper, we study the applicability of the model with Bayesian...