Russian Abstract: Оценка моделей с изменяющимися во времени параметрами нашла широкое распространение в макроэкономических исследованиях, реализуемых в течение...

In a paper construction branch forecasting model which allows to estimate the industry development problems is shown. Difference from anthers models, in given paper the main attention is turned to the building of the living area. Model stands from sub model (blocks): amount of apartments, real...

Russian Abstract: В последние годы тема прогнозирования развития энергетических систем становится всё более актуальной. Всё большее число энергетических организаций и...

The article summarizes the key results of researches in the field of early warning systems for financial crises, conducted by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) since 2005. The proposed early warning system consists of three major blocks: the leading...

The theorem of existence of the ruptures in the probability scale has been proved for a discrete case. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula...

Forecasting inflation is an important and challenging practical task. In particular, models with a large number of explanatory variables on relatively short samples can often overfit in-sample and, thus, forecast poorly. In this paper, we study the applicability of the model with Bayesian...

In 2003, President of Russia Vladimir Putin set the task of doubling the GDP. However, this task is yet to be accomplished. Why this goal has not been achieved yet? What needs to be done to double Russia’s GDP? To answer these questions is exactly what this paper sets out to do. We can see...

Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia - the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of...

Forecasts showing how the economy will be developing are very important both for the government and for all the economic agents, including citizens. In Russia, the common practice is to forecast based on price assumptions for hydrocarbons, primarily oil. Such an approach causes serious errors....

This paper considers different ways of computing indexes for forecasting economic activity in Russia. The first is the methodology used by the Russian Development Centre based on the concept of "growth cycles". The second combines the dynamic principal components and dynamic factor analyses. The...