This research aims to estimate the impact of short and long-term structural shocks on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as on prices in Bolivia. The methodology used was structural autoregressive vectors and the data used came from the National Institute of Statistics. Results shows that...

Between 1986 and 2003 the Argentine risk premium was able to explain, almost alone, the Argentine business cycle. As time went by, the premium lost gradually its explanatory power till losing it all between 2011 and 2019. Meanwhile, a huge increase in public expenditure might have triggered a...

The purpose of this paper is to contrast the Keynesian partial equilibrium framework of the Current Account with the modern intertemporal general equilibrium approach where the Current Account imbalances reflect, and act as a buffer, against both real and monetary shocks. The document will try...

Since 2006, Bolivia began an intensive public investment program under its development plan. Fourteen years later, I analyze the role of this expansionary fiscal policy. In this regard, I develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for a small, open and developing country. Among the...

This document studies the recent evolution of the break-even-inflation implicit in the yields of long-term financial instruments in Mexico. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of its main components: the long-run inflation expectation and the inflationary risk premium, which are estimated by...

This paper analyzes the relationship between central bank independence and inflation in a panel of 182 countries for the period from 1970 to 2018. To measure the degree of independence, two measures are used, the Garriga (2016) index, constructed from the laws and internal regulations of central...

This paper evaluates five Nowcasting models that forecast Mexico's quarterly GDP: a Dynamic Factor Model (MFD), two Bridge Equation Models (BE) and two Principal Components Models (PCA). The results indicate that the average of the BE forecasts is statistically better than the rest of the models...