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We search for evidence against the hypothesis of a non-linear relationship between inflation and growth rates for 1993-2012 Peruvian data. A family of dichotomous models provide the way to model the relationship between the those two variables' cycles. Given the acceleration/de-acceleration...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015245557
El modelo gaussiano GARCH(1,1) ha sido empleado, tradicionalmente, en el estudio de la tasa de cambio; sin embargo, un número importante de estudios recientes (utilizando modelos FIGARCH e HYGARCH) ha encontrado evidencia de persistencia en su volatilidad. En este trabajo, usando una estrategia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005603782
The present project is related in the measurement of the risk and the improvement of the processes of monetary species. The main objective is to offer a methodology in the tickets administration because understanding of history is a situation that becomes in an advantage on the opportunities at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015218742
This paper develops a macroeconometric simulation model for Mexico on a microeconomics basis. This proposal has several distinctive features that makes it different from other models that have been previously elaborated for the Mexican economy. Behavioral relationships are not specified in an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005738258
Un problema recurrente es que los modelos estructurales de determinación del tipo de cambio no logran predecirlo con mayor precisión que un camino aleatorio. El objetivo de la presente investigación es verificar si es posible obtener proyecciones relativamente precisas generadas por un grupo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008596150
During the last decades the exchange trade in Spain overseas has experienced a major boost, firstly related to European market integration and, recently, to the worldwide globalization process, whereby huge exporters (i.e. China or India) have raised to the new international scene and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008603024
Este artículo toma como base la información de la tasa de desempleo de Bogotá en el periodo 1984-2000 para analizar la estacionariedad de la serie utilizando los test de Dickey Fuller Aumentado (ADF) y el de Zivot-Andrews (ZA). Se expone cómo en presencia de cambio estructural el test...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769470
En los bancos centrales se suele utilizar modelos no estructurales y semi-estructurales para predecir diversas variables, especialmente la inflación, cuyo control es su principal objetivo. El Sistema de Predicción Desagregada (SPD) es un conjunto de modelos SparseVAR no estructurales usados...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005694888
Schwarz. In this paper I evaluate the predictive ability of the Akaike and Schwarz information criteria using autoregressive integrated moving average models, with sectoral data of Chilean GDP. In terms of root mean square error, and after the estimation of more than a million models, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015230106
This paper contains the results of a non parametric multi-step ahead forecast for the monthly Colombian inflation, using Mean conditional Kernel estimation over inflation changes, with no inclusion of exogenous variables. The results are compared with those from an ARIMA and a nonlinear STAR....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783908