This paper considers the forecast accuracies of VAR and ARIMA models. The paper, hence, employs monthly Turkish CPI, Exchange Rate and Interest rate variables for the period 1994:1-200:07, and, observes the ex-post forecast values of the relevant variables. To this end, paper first determines...

In this study, an output gap measure is derived for the Turkish economy using an estimated New Keynesian model. Considering the ongoing structural transformation during the last decade, the model is estimated for 2002-2010 period using Bayesian techniques. The results indicate that output, which...

The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...

The relationships between inflation and its uncertainty have long been perceived in the economics literature as a special research area based mainly on empirical findings. Testing the causality between these aggregates enables us to attain the significant knowledgement of whether or not...

Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, metal vadeli işlem fiyatlarının daralma ve genişleme dönemlerini Markov Rejim Değişim Otoregresif Modellerini kullanarak analiz etmektir. Çalışmada, durasyon ve olasılıkların tespiti ile yatırımcılara aldıkları kararlarda bilgi...

Turkish Abstract: Bu çalışmada İMKB hisse senedi piyasasında yabancı işlemlerin hisse senedi getirileri üzerinde etkili olup olmadığı, tabanın genişlemesi (base broadening) hipotezinden yola çıkılarak ortaya konulmaya çalışmıştır. 1997:01 – 2008:09 tarihleri arasındaki...

In this study, we examine if there is a linkage between the budget deficit (BD) and current account deficit (CAP). Traditional theory asserts that the BD leads to CAD, given that government expenditures are fixed. As disposable income increases due to BD (i.e., due to tax-cuts given that there...

Hypothesis of purchasing power parity basically depends on the presumption of unique price in international trade. The price of a good is the same all over the world when it is converted to a common currency. In other words, one unit of national currency has the same purchasing power everywhere...