Recent financial crises and especially large corporate bankruptcies, have led bank managements and financial authorities to follow and monitor both financial and real sector risks, and to focus on firm failures. Bank of International Settlements, has therefore, taken the decision to include the...

The aim of this study is to compare the ex post forecast accuracies of VAR, ARIMA, ES, Combining and Add-factor methods. In this comparison, the ex post forecasts of 2000:1-2000:4 are obtained by using the data of the Turkish private consumption for the period of 1987:1-1999:4. Beside private...