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Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory
Sargent, Thomas; Surico, Paolo - Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Bank of England - 2008
To detect the quantity theory of money, we follow Lucas (1980) by looking at scatter plots of filtered time series of … inflation and money growth rates and interest rates and money growth rates. Like Whiteman (1984), we relate those scatter plots …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005518503
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Estimating the Evolution of Money's Role in the U.S. Monetary Business Cycle
Castelnuovo, Efrem - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno", … - 2009
We assess the time-varying money's role in the post-WWII U.S. business cycle by estimating a new-Keynesian framework … policymakers to money growth. Rolling-window Bayesian estimations a la Canova (2009) are contrasted to a full sample fixed …-coefficient investigation. Our results suggest that the assumption of stable parameters is unwarranted. The omission of money may induce biased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008533554
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Insiders versus outsiders in monetary policymaking
Besley, Timothy; Meads, Neil; Surico, Paolo - London School of Economics (LSE) - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010744911
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Measuring the time-inconsistency of US monetary policy
Surico, Paolo - Money Macro and Finance Research Group - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004978085
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Tracking U.S. Inflation Expectations with Domestic and Global Indicators
Castelnuovo, Efrem - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno", … - 2006
Are foreign variables important for tracking U.S. inflation expectations? This paper estimates a reduced-form model which takes into account both domestic and global indicators of economic slack as well as inflationary pressures. Our main findings point towards the instability of the estimated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005786731
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Long Memory and Non-Linearities in International Inflation
Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno", … - 2008
This paper investigates inflation dynamics in a panel of 20 OECD economies using an approach based on the sample autocorrelation function (ACF). We find that inflation is characterized by long-lasting fluctuations, which are similar across countries and that eventually revert to a potentially...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005786773
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Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policymaking
Besley, Timothy; Meads, Neil; Surico, Paolo - In: American Economic Review 98 (2008) 2, pp. 218-23
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005563410
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How does the ECB target inflation?
Surico, Paolo - EconWPA - 2003
The announced primary objective of the European Central Bank is price stability. While no restrictive reference is given to how the goal should be reached, such a mandate can be thought as a concern to stabilize some relevant macroeconomic aggregates. Accordingly, we frame ECB monetary policy in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005126300
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Measuring the Time-Inconsistency of US Monetary Policy
Surico, Paolo - EconWPA - 2004
This paper offers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US inflation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time- inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic inflation bias...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005412629
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Inflation Targeting and Nonlinear Policy Rules: the Case of Asymmetric Preferences
Surico, Paolo - Econometric Society - 2004
This paper investigates the empirical relevance of a new framework for monetary policy analysis in which the decision makers are allowed to weight differently positive and negative deviations of inflation and output from the target values. Reduced-form and structural estimates of the central...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005328857