Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these...

This paper explores French assets returns predictability within a VAR setup. Using quarterly data from 1970Q4 to 2006Q4, it turns out that bonds, equities and bills returns are actually predictable. This feature implies that the investment horizon does indeed matter in the asset allocation. The...

We explore the various arguments for and against the recommendation that younger households should invest a larger share of their pension wealth in risky assets. The ability of young agents to compensate their financial losses by saving more during their career provides the strongest argument in...

We examine asset prices in a representative-agent model of general equilibrium. Assuming only that individuals are risk averse, we determine conditions on the changes in asset risk that are both necessary and sufficient for the asset price to fall. We show that these conditions neither imply,...

We consider in this paper the problem of a risk-averse firm with limited liability. The firm has to select the size of its investment in a risky project. We show that the optimal exposure to risk of the limited liability firm is always larger than under full liability. Moreover, there exists a...

The ability to share risk efficiently in the economy is essential to welfare and growth. However, the increased frequency of natural catastrophes over the last decade has raised once again questions associated to the limits of insurability in a free-market economy, and to the relevance of public...

The efficient rate of return of a zero-coupon bond with maturity t is determined by our expectations about the mean (+), variance (-) and skewness (+) of the growth of aggregate consumption between 0 and t. The shape of the yield curve is thus determined by how these moments vary with t. We...

Suppose that a group of agents having divergent expectations can share risks efficiently. We examine how this group should behave collectively to manage these risks. We show that the beliefs of the representative agent are in general a function of the group's wealth level, or equivalently, that...

We consider the effect of information on the ex ante average risk-free rate and the equity premium in a standard exchange economy with a representative agent. We show that information always increases the average risk-free rate. Clearly, perfect information eliminates the equity premium;...

We show in this paper that bang-bang portfolio strategies where the investor is alternatively 100% in equity and 100% in cash are dynamically inefficient. Our proof of this result is based on a simple second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) argument. It implies that this is true for any decision...