One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How...

In his comment on our paper, John H. Herbert brings out an important issue: [N]o one (except KSS, as far as I know) has recommended using the bonds approach for forecasting. KSS however, does not reply on a well-founded statistical basis for their forecasting procedure: it is decidedly ad hoc....