Projections of the future demand for electricitypublished annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a...

Recent research suggests that stock returns are predictable from fundamentals such as dividend yield, and that the degree of predictability rises with the length of the horizon over which return is measured. This paper investigates the magnitude of two sources of small simple bias in these...

This paper shows that the Zero-Information-Limit-Condition (ZILC) formulated by Nelson and Startz (2006) holds in the GARCH(1,1) model. As a result, the GARCH estimate tends to have too small a standard error relative to the true one when the ARCH parameter is small, even when sample size...

This paper examines whether permanent earnings growth, crucial to stock valuation, increased during the 1990s as suggested by proponents of the 'New Economy. Using Samp;P 500 earnings for 1951-2000, we do not find strong evidence of either a one-time structural break or gradual change. However,...

The literature documents that low stock returns are associated with increased volatility, but two competing explanations have proved difficult to disentangle. A negative return increases leverage making equity value more volatile. However, volatility feedback increases the risk premium when a...

In this paper, we assume that the world oil price is an increasing function of the level of world oil demand and that OECD nations adopt tariffs to reduce their oil imports. We present a simple model to investigate issues related to the coordination of tariff policies between two regions: US and...