Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? We address this question by using survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptive learning....

In this paper we study how inflation expectations are formed and whether these change due to the occurrence of policy shifts or structural breaks. We conduct 4 experiments with 75 inexperienced subjects, in which we ask them to predict future home inflation and report confidence intervals. At...

This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Green Book. We provide an alternative test of rational expectations hypothesis by measuring the degree of persistence of potential systematic mistakes....