The economics profession appears to have been unaware of the long build-up to the current worldwide financial crisis and to have significantly underestimated its dimensions once it started to unfold. In our view, this lack of understanding is due to a misallocation of research efforts in...

This note focuses on George Soros's challenge to macroeconomics and finance theory that any valid methodology of social science must explicitly recognize fallibility in a Knightian sense. We use a simple algebraic example to sketch how extant models formalize fallibility. We argue that...

This paper argues that contemporary macroeconomic and finance models suffer from insuperable epistemological flaws and that their empirical difficulties -- which are particularly apparent in modeling market participants' expectations -- can be traced to economists' core premise that they can...