This paper analyses the effects of inflation on ex-post real interest rates in an international framework. A dynamic factor model is estimated in which real interest rates are influenced by real interest and inflation factors that are common to all the countries, and by country- specific...

This paper analyses the effects of inflation on ex-post real interest rates in an international framework. A dynamic factor model is estimated in which real interest rates are influenced by real interest and inflation factors that are common to all the countries, and by country-specific factors....

Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than twenty years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out-of-sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard...

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier, 1946 moderation in output and consumption...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the tests of Hansen (1991) to detect structural breaks in cointegrated relations using Monte Carlo methods. The evaluation takes place within the linear quadratic model. The evidence for a single regressor suggests that the test have proper size and...