We model seasonal, uncertain production of a commodity, with speculative storage. We allow agents to be risk averse, and we allow planned production to respond to price prospects. We also explicitly consider the presence or absence of a futures market in the commodity. Our technique involves a...

We study a continuous time model of a levered firm with fixed assets generating a cash flow which fluctuates with business conditions. Since external finance is costly, the firm holds a liquid (cash) reserve to help survive periods of poor business conditions. Holding liquid assets inside the...

In the Samp;P500 futures options, we identify 3 factors, corresponding to movements in the underlying, parallel movements, and tilting of the cross section of implied volatilities (the quot;smirk factor''). We relate these factors non-linearly to movements in the option prices. They are...

We construct portfolios of Samp;P500 futures and their associated options, which are Delta (price) and Vega (volatility) neutral. These systematically earn negative abnormal returns, and suggest that out of the money puts are too expensive, relative to out of the money calls. We give evidence...

A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed for the estimation of multivariate linear Gaussian state space models. In particular, an efficient simulation smoothing algorithm is proposed that makes use of the univariate representation of the state space model. Substantial gains...

The impact of parameterisation on the simulation efficiency of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for two non-Gaussian state space models is examined. Specifically, focus is given to particular forms of the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model and the stochastic...

A number of different continuous time approaches that have been developed to model the term structure of interest rates are examined. These techniques span the interest rate literature over the last 20 years or so, and are the most commonly used among both academics and practitioners. We view...