This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of...

This paper develops a model that focuses on the interaction of liquidity creation by financial intermediaries with capital flows and exchange rate collapses. The intermediaries` role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crisis....

This paper develops simple guidelines for fiscal policy in oil producing countries, focusing on three issues: intergenerational oil distribution, precautionary saving, and adjustment costs. The paper presents a framework to analyze how the revenue generated by an exhaustible source of wealth...

This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific...

This paper analyzes boom-bust cycles in emerging market economies triggered by missperception about future productivity. Using a small open economy DSGE model we show that non-materialized news about future productivity improvements (i.e. overoptimism) generate boom-bust cycles that replicate...

In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro...

Este trabajo presenta nuevas series de ahorro por agentes económicos para la economía chilena. Las series anuales cubren el período 1960-1997 y se desagregan para seis sectores: sector externo, gobierno general, empresas públicas, banco central, empresas privadas y hogares. En el caso de los...