The Monetary Policy Committee is provided with information from options markets to quantify market uncertainty about the future course of financial asset prices. For short-term interest rates, this is shown in the Inflation Report's blue fan chart. Similar information can be obtained from a wide...

Implied probability density functions (PDFs) estimated from cross-sections of observed option prices are gaining increasing attention amongst academics and practitioners. However, to date little attention has been paid to the robustness of these estimates or to the confidence users can place in...

This paper investigates the information contained in the yields of corporate debt securities using a structural credit risk model. As previous studies have found, credit risk is not the only factor that affects corporate yield spreads. The aim is to decompose credit spreads, using a structural...

Cross-sections of option prices embed the risk-neutral probability densities functions (PDFs) for the future values of the underlying asset. Theory suggests that risk-neutral PDFs differ from market expectations due to risk premia. Using a utility function to adjust the risk-neutral PDF to...

The statistics that summarise probability density functions (pdfs) implied from option prices can be used to assess market expectations about future uncertainty, asymmetry and the probability of extreme movements in asset prices. A time-series analysis of these statistics for equity index and...

This paper estimates yield curve models for the UK, where the underlying determinants have a macroeconomic interpretation. The first factor is an unobserved inflation target, the second factor is annual inflation, and the third factor is a 'Taylor rule residual', which, among other things,...

This paper presents a new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions. First, we obtain a parsimonious description of the dynamics of the Samp;P 500 implied cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) by applying Principal Components Analysis. Subsequently, we develop new...

Equity valuations are important for monetary policy makers as the factors that drive equity valuations may contain information about the future course of the economy. Moreover, a possible correction in equity prices may be a source of shocks to which monetary policy may have to react. Such an...

We address the empirical implementation of the static asset allocation problem by developing a forward-looking approach that uses information from market option prices. To this end, constant maturity Samp;P 500 implied distributions are extracted and subsequently transformed to the corresponding...

Modern electronic payment systems rely on trusted, central third parties to process payments securely. Recent developments have seen the creation of digital currencies like Bitcoin, which combine new currencies with decentralised payment systems. Although the monetary aspects of digital...