While a host of economic variables have been identified in the literature with the apparent in-sample ability to predict the equity premium, Goyal and Welch (2008) find that these variables fail to deliver consistent out-of-sample forecasting gains relative to the historical average. Arguing...

This paper uses three panel unit-root tests and finds that real per capita GDP for OECD countries and a European subsample converge stochastically for the period 1948-87 but not for the entire sample of 1900-87. For the postwar period, the differential in income gaps or speed of adjustment is...

Given the marked differences in housing price growth across USregions since the mid-1990s, we investigate forecasts of state-level real housing price growth for 1995-2006. We evaluate forecasts from an autoregressive benchmark model as well as models based on a host of state, regional, and...