The payoffs of path-dependent options depend not only on the nal values, but also on the sample paths of the prices of the underlying assets. A rigorous modeling of the under-lying asset price processes which can appropriately describe the sample paths is therefore critical for pricing...

Since Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1974), structural models of credit risk have relied almost exclusively on diffusion processes to model the evolution of firm value. While a diffusion approach is convenient, in empirical application, it has produced very disappointing results. Jones,...

If stock prices do not follow random walks, what processes do they follow? This question is important not only for forecasting purposes, but also for theoretical analyses and derivative pricing where a tractable model of the movement of underlying stock prices is needed. Although several models...

This paper uses the term structure of interest rates to explain the variations of stock prices and stock returns. It shows that interest rates have an important impact on stock returns, especially at long horizons. The hypothesis that expected stock returns move one-for-one with ex ante interest...

Evaluating default correlations or the probabilities of default by more than one firm is an important task in credit analysis, derivatives pricing, and risk management. However, default correlations cannot be measured directly, multiple-default modeling is technically difficult, and most...

In markets with trading friction, the incorporation of information into market prices can be substantially delayed through a weakening of the arbitrage process. We re-examine the profitability of relative-strength, or momentum, trading strategies (buying past strong performers and selling past...

We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP, consumption, and investment. We find that auto stock returns are superior toaggregate stock market returns in predicting growth rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The...

We model the effects on banks of the introduction of a market for credit derivatives; in particular, credit default swaps. A bank can use such swaps to temporarily transfer credit risks of their loans to others, reducing the likelihood that defaulting loans trigger the bank's financial distress....