Overbuilding in commercial real estate in the 1980s is commonly viewed as an example of a speculative bubble. This paper questions that view and proposes an environment in which overbuilding could occur as a rational response to fiscal policy in the 1980s. Further, this paper contends that...

Why are forecasts of inflation from VAR models so much worse than their forecasts of real variables? This paper documents that relatively poor performance, and finds that the price equation of a VAR model fitted to U.S. postwar data is poorly specified. Statistical work by other authors has...

We document several empirical regularities regarding the evolution of urban structure in the largest U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1980-1990. These regularities relate to changes in resident population, employment, occupations, as well as the number and size of establishments in...

Using data compiled from concentrated residential urban revitalization programs implemented in Richmond, Virginia, between 1999 and 2004, we study residential externalities. We estimate that housing externalities decrease by half approximately every 1,000 feet. On average, land prices in...