Denna studie visar att utfallet i avtalsrörelsen 2007 har stor betydelse för framtida produktion och sysselsättning. Beräkningar i Konjunkturinstitutets makroekonomiska modell KIMOD visar att parterna kan minska jämviktsarbetslösheten med en procentenhet genom återhållsamma avtal...

We analyse model choices of various international institutions and find that the majority of the studied central banks have chosen so-called DSGE-models. Ministry of finances have chosen to continue using so-called Semi-Structural Models (SSM) while international organisations such as the IMF...

Recent theoretical research suggest that monetary shocks might play an important role in explaining movements in the real exchange rate in the short and medium run. Empirically, the contribution of transitory (monetary) disturbances in explaining the variance decomposition of real exchange rates...

We estimate a so called common trends model of federal taxes and spending in the U.S.. Using dates on presidential terms as well as the NBER business cycle, we are able to interpret the estimated permanent shock as being of structural policy origin and the transitory shock as being of (to...

In the past 10 to 15 years, it has been argued in the literature on "expansionary fiscal contraction" (EFC) that under certain circumstances, fiscal policy has non-Keynesian effects. We show that the real exchange rate depreciated substantially prior to fiscal contractions with a favorable...

Why do some fiscal contractions generate a favorable macroeconomic outcome while others do not? Using both descriptive statistics and regression analysis of 19 OECD countries for the period 1970-97, this paper finds that preceding depreciations are important for a favorable macroeconomic outcome...

Case studies have claimed that private consumption growth is higher during fiscal contractions due to the very fact that government spending is cut. Indeed, neoclassical theory has this implication. This paper uses regression analysis of a panel of 19 OECD countries and shows that this is not...