Complex interactions between fundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets are succinctly modeled with coordination games. We propose a flexible framework to estimate such a model and use the efficient method of moments as estimation procedure. We illustrate the model...

Precise estimation of the tail shape of forex returns is of critical importance for proper risk assessment. We improve upon the efficiency of conventional estimators that rely on a first order expansion of the tail shape, by using the second order expansion. Here we advocate a moments estimator...

The dependence of foreign exchange rates on order flow is investigated for four major exchange rate pairs, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD and USD/JPY, across sampling frequencies ranging from 5 min to 1 week. Strong explanatory power is discovered for all sampling frequencies. We also uncover...

We exploit full order level information from an electronic FX broking system to provide a comprehensive account of the determination of its liquidity. We not only look at bid-ask spreads and trading volumes, but also study the determination of order entry rates and depth measures derived from...

We analyse the trade characteristics and market conditions which determine the market share of an electronic order book at the London Stock Exchange, where an quot;upstairsquot; network of dual-capacity firms is also available for trade. We hypothesize and empirically verify that execution and...

We compute bid-ask spreads for the dollar/euro exchange rate and find them to be substantially larger than their deutschemark counterparts before introduction of the euro. We show that larger percentage spreads are not explained by volatility, trade intensity, and other standard explanatory...

Most of the existing empirical literature on FX market microstructure uses indicative quote data derived from Reuters EFX Screens. This paper examines the adequacy of such data as proxies for firm, tradeable quotes. We present a comparison of prices (and volumes) derived from Reuters D2000-2...

This paper is an empirical examination of liquidity determination on an electronic FX broking system. We focus on two facets of liquidity. First we study the dynamics of liquidity supply and demand via event-time order arrival probabilities and calendar-time order entry rates. We demonstrate...

The quality of statistical risk models is much lower than often assumed. Such models are useful for measuring the risk of frequent small events, such as in internal risk management, but not for systemically important events. Unfortunately, it is common to see unrealistic demands placed on risk...

Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...