This paper compares the quality of commonly used predictors for the volatility of stock returns. The techniques studied are moving averages of squared returns, GARCH and stochastic volatility models, and the implied volatility. We use a variety of econometric criteria to assess the forecasting...

The search for deterministic chaos in economic and financial time series has attracted much interest over the past decade. Evidence of chaotic structures is usually blurred, however, by large random components in the time series. In the first part of this paper, a sophisticated algorithm for...

The search for deterministic chaos in economic and financial time series has attracted much interest over the past decade. Evidence of chaotic structures is usually blurred, however, by large random components in the time series. In the first part of this paper, a sophisticated algorithm for...

Motivated by previous findings that discretization of financial time series can effectively filter the data and reduce the noise, this experimental study compares the trading performance of predictive models based on different modelling paradigms in a realistic setting. Different methods ranging...

Risk management has become an important issue for banks and corporations, not only because of regulation but also because of risk adjusted performance measurement. Value-at-risk has become an industry standard in risk measurement. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the performance of different...

Analysts in a bank's research department cover firms that have no relationship with the bank as well as companies in which the bank has a strategic interest. Officially, banks must establish Chinese Walls around their research departments to allow the analysts to work independently and to avoid...