During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend...

This paper provides preliminary econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional trade-based business cycle linkages between the North and the South have changed. Many countries in the South, in particular in Asia, appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the North, and...

Publication of minutes of monthly monetary policy meetings between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England was a conspicuous feature of the United Kingdom's inflation targeting framework from 1994 through April 1997. It was intended to reinforce credibility by...

The U.K. monetary policy framework, which combines inflation targeting with operational independence, provides a suitable arrangement for focused and credible monetary policy. However, potential weaknesses could result from features that have not yet been fully tested: the credibility and...

Using daily data for 1995-99, this paper estimates a simple forward looking model of the exchange rate to show that foreign exchange interventions have, on the whole, had small but persistent effects on the yen-dollar rate. Contrary to conventional wisdom, sterilized interventions have mattered....

This paper considers the solution of nonlinear rational expectations models resulting from the optimality conditions of a finite-horizon intertemporal optimisation problem satisfying Bellman's principle of optimality (and possibly involving inequality constraints). A backward recursive procedure...

This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behaviour and hysteresis so that an individual exporter’s decision to stay in or...