Exchange rates have raised the ire of economists for more than twenty years. The problem is that few, if any, exchange rate models are known to systematically beat a naive random walk in out-of-sample forecasts. Engel and West (2005) show that these failures can be explained by the standard...

The Great Moderation refers to the fall in U.S. output growth volatility in the mid-1980s. At the same time, the United States experienced a moderation in inflation and lower average inflation. Using annual data since 1890, we find that an earlier, 1946 moderation in output and consumption...

It is generally accepted that convergence is well established for Canadian regional outputs. Another prevalent belief is that the Canadian regions respond symmetrically to the same aggregate shocks. A common trends - common cycles decomposition of Canadian regional outputs casts doubt on the...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...

We examine the effectiveness of recursive-weight and equal-weight combination strategies for forecasting using many time-varying models of the relationship between inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation reflect the uncertainty across models using many statistical...