Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work. We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups...

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with reference to two models of the UK economy, namely the long-run structural VAR model of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin...

The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with reference to two models of the UK economy, namely the Cambridge long-run structural VAR model and the COMPACT model....