It is shown that the individual fixed-odds betting market on UK football exhibits the same favourite-longshot bias as that found in horse-racing. The bias appears both in betting on results (home win, away win or draw) and in betting on specific scores, and there are certain trading rules which...

Despite displaying a statistically significant optimism bias, analysts' earnings forecasts are an important input to investors' valuation models. Understanding the possible reasons for any bias is important if information is to be extracted from earnings forecasts and used optimally by...

Slow adjustment of real exchange rate towards equilibrium in linear models has long puzzled researchers, stimulating the adoption of nonlinear models. The exponential smooth transition model has been particularly successful, providing faster adjustment speeds. This paper discusses some of its...

We analyse the nonlinear behaviour of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one-year-ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the USA and four of the UK over the last 40 years. However, recent investigations on the...

Two different approaches intend to resolve the 'puzzling' slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996), "Journal of Economic Literature", Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non-linear adjustment of real exchange rate to...