The Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) modelling philosophy emphasises the importance of parametrically efficient, low order, ‘dominant mode’ models, as well as the development of stochastic methods and the associated statistical analysis required for their identification and estimation....

This paper describes data assimilation (DA) and adaptive forecasting techniques for flood forecasting and their application to forecasting water levels at various locations along a 120 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom. The methodology exploits the top-down, data-based mechanistic...