It is widely recognized that taking cointegration relationships into consideration is useful in forecasting cointegrated processes. However, there are a few practical problems when forecasting large cointegrated processes using the well-known vector error correction model. First, it is hard to...

We propose a Bayesian procedure to estimate heteroscedastic variances of the regression error term ω, when the form of heteroscedasticity is unknown. The prior information on ω is based on a Dirichlet distribution, and in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, its proposal density...

Using principal component methods, we construct a cointegration rank test that is less restrictive than Johansen's tests, easy to calculate, and independent of the dimension of the process. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the proposed test outperforms Johansen's tests.

We propose a Bayesian procedure to estimate heteroscedastic variances of the regression error term, when the form of heteroscedasticity is unknown. We use prior information that is elicited from the well-known Eicker-White Heteroscedasticity Consistent Variance- CovarianceMatrix Estimator, and...