The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are...

Using the Carlson and Parkin (1975) framework and employing the Pesaran–Timmermann (1992) Predictive Failure statistic, we evaluate several consensus forecast series from CESIfo's World Economic Survey. Several issues are examined related to interpreting qualitative survey responses. We define...

The relationship between two sets of GNP data, the earliest and the first revisions, is examined. This comparison enables us to determine whether the early numbers are valuable to forecasters. The analysis uses two methods. The first is based on a technique which has been used to evaluate...