This paper presents a family of processes to model electricity spot prices in deregulated markets. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a...

This paper analyzes the special features of electricity spot prices derived from the physics of this commodity and from the economics of supply and demand in a market pool. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other commodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in...

The goal of the paper is to show that some types of Levy processes such as the hyperbolic motion and the CGMY are particularly suitable for asset price modelling and option pricing. We wish to review some fundamental mathematic properties of Levy distributions, such as the one of infinite...

Models which hypothesize that returns are pure jump processes with independent increments have been shown to be capable of capturing the observed variation of market prices of vanilla stock options across strike and maturity. In this paper, these models are employed to derive in closed form the...

We investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns. In contrast to standard models, we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation. Empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion...

An empirical approach to analysing the forward curve dynamics of energy futures is presented. For non-seasonal commodities—such as crude oil—the forward curve is well described by the first three principal components: the level, slope and curvature. A principal component indicator is...

We model electricity futures prices using a seasonal forward curve model, quantifying seasonalities by a deterministic seasonal forward premium. Stochastic features of the futures prices are contained in the stochastic forward premium: a quantity analogous to the well-known convenience yield....

We consider a novel approach to modelling of commodity prices and apply it to commodity option pricing and volatility estimation. This approach is particularly suited for prices with multiple attraction regions, such as crude oil and other energy and agricultural commodities. The price is...

We develop a new approach to valuing and hedging basket options. We consider baskets of assets with potentially negative portfolio weights (spread options are a subclass of such basket options). The basket distribution is approximated using a generalized family of log-normal distributions. This...