The "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve (NKPC) states that inflation has a purely forward-looking dynamics. In this paper, we test whether European and US inflation dynamics can be described by this model. For this purpose, we estimate hybrid Phillips curves, which include both backward and...

Many macroeconomic models (including the NKPC - "New Keynesian" Phillips Curve) involve hybrid equations, in which some variables depend on both their lags and leads. Hybrid models have produced conflicting empirical results: GMM (respectively ML) estimation find the forward- looking component...

We estimate two small macroeconomic models with forward-looking components, for the US and Germany. The models, which include a Phillips curve, an I-S curve and a monetary policy rule, are estimated using the full-information maximum-likelihood procedure. They are shown to have some robustness...

Estimating a forward-looking monetary policy rule by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has become a popular approach since the influential paper by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1998). However , an abundant econometric literature underlines to the unappealing small- samples properties of GMM...

Most rational expectations models involve equations in which the dependent variable is a function of its lags and its expected future value. We investigate the asymptotic bias of generalized method of moment (GMM) and maximum likelihood (ML) estimators in such models under misspecification. We...

Using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters we find evidence that those forecasters draw systematically biased predictions and disagree even if they forecast the same variable. Recent theoretical advances in the macroeconomics of imperfect information relate these bias and disagreement to...

We document the presence of both small and large price changes in individual price records from the CPI in France and the US. After correcting for measurement error and cross-section heterogeneity, the size-distribution of price changes has a positive excess kurtosis. We propose an analytical...