We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP, consumption, and investment. We find that auto stock returns are superior toaggregate stock market returns in predicting growth rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The...

Bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold in the secondary market underperform their peers by about 9% per year (risk-adjusted) over the three-year period following the initial sale...

Over the last two decades, bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model where banks can originate loans, earn their fee, and then sell them off to investors who desire such exposures. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold...

Bank credit has evolved from the traditional relationship banking model to an originate-to-distribute model. We show that the borrowers whose loans are sold in the secondary market underperform their peers by about 9% per year (risk-adjusted) over the three-year period following the initial sale...

This paper examines the convexity bias introduced by pricing interest rate swaps off the Eurocurrency futures curve and the market's adjustment of this bias in prices over time. Theconvexity bias arises because of the difference between a futures versus a forward contract on interest rates,...

This paper examines the pricing and hedging performance of interest rate option pricing models in the U.S. dollar interest rate cap and floor markets. We evaluate alternative one-factor and two-factor term structure models on daily data from March-December 1998, consisting of actual cap and...

This paper examines whether higher order multifactor models, with state variables linked solely to the full set of underlying LIBOR-swap rates, are by themselves capable of explaining and hedging interest rate derivatives, or whether models explicitly exhibiting features such as unspanned...