We propose an alternative method of obtaining stylized facts on comovement, based on the cross-correlation function of the prewhitened time series, which only depends on the purely stochastic components of the series and the cross effects between them. This approach has the property of being...

In this paper, we present a model-based method for identifying fiscal closure rules in stochastic macroeconomic models. The methodology is based on the stability analysis of the model at hand, with an endogenous derivation of a reaction on the part of the fiscal authority to state variables in...

Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as...

In this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system of use for the real-time monitoring of the Spanish government’s borrowing requirement. Spain has been at the centre of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures in meeting...

We analyze the determinants of the structure of public debt in the case of Spain, from a sub-national perspective. The endogenous shift in the composition of debt among short- vs long-term instruments, loans- vs securities, or residents vs non-residents, depends on observable measures of credit...

We analyze the evolution of General Government employment in Spain over the economic crisis and the recent fiscal consolidation process. We characterize the changes in the structure and composition of General government workforce between economics sectors, level of administration, and type of...

The fact that the literature tends to find optimistic biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing recognition in the academic and policy arenas of the need for independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, such as the European Commission in the case...

We analyse the determinants of the structure of public debt in the case of Spain, from a sub-national perspective. The endogenous shift in the composition of debt (among shortvs long-term instruments, and loans vs securities) depends on observable measures of credit and liquidity risks. To...

We provide key stylised facts on fiscal policy developments in Spain over the past three decades using quarterly data (1986Q1-2012Q2). First, we compute stylised facts on the cyclical properties of fiscal policies over that period. Next, we report updated evidence on the macroeconomic effects of...