This paper develops an early warning system for banking crises in the G20 countries, with the inclusion of capital account openness indicators. Results suggest that the capital account openness demonstrates a significant predictive power on systemic banking crises, and the impact is related with...

This article applies a new statistical moment, Trimmed L-comoment, in modelling Expected Shortfall (<italic>ES</italic>) and exploits an empirical study on China's stock markets. In comparison with existing models, out-of-sample forecasts and backtests indicate superior accuracy and precision for the models...

Recent literature has attempted to apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in the identification of currency crises. However, these approaches seem to have confused the thresholds in extreme modeling with the cutoffs of currency crises. Our paper proposes a Return Level Identification Approach, also...

This paper focuses on how the household saving rate should be measured. The current method used in China to measure the saving rate is compared with that used in the U.S. Significant differences in concept and scope are discovered. Using these differences as a basis, we make relevant adjustments...

This paper provides a new estimation method for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) based on multivariate extreme value theory. In contrast to previous studies, the method does not assume specific dependence structure among bank equity returns and is applicable to both large and small systems....

A holdup model is analyzed in which one party, the seller, has an investment project that the other party, the buyer, can subsidize. The investment project remains the seller's; she cannot transfer her entire control rights to it. In particular, she can always refuse to allow the buyer to...

When univariate methods are applied to real exchange rates, point estimates of autoregressive coefficients typically imply very slow rates of mean reversion. Rogoff (1996) discusses that the remarkable consensus of 3-5 year half-lives of purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations is found among...

: This paper tests the random walk hypothesis for the stock markets of the US, Japan, Germany, the UK, Hong Kong and Australia using unit root tests and spectral analysis. The results based upon the augmented Dicky Fuller (1979) and Phillips-Perron (1988) tests and spectral analysis find that...