This article studies a simple, coherent approach for identifying and estimating error correcting vector autoregressive moving average (EC-VARMA) models. Canonical correlation analysis is implemented for both determining the cointegrating rank, using a strongly consistent method, and identifying...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

This paper builds a structural VARMA (SVARMA) model for investigating Canadian monetary policy. Despite the support for a VARMA model for monetary policy analysis, the traditional VAR and SVAR models have predominantly been used in the literature mainly due to difficulties associated with the...

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities...

Decreases in stock market returns often lead to higher increases in volatility than increases in returns of the same magnitude, and it is common to incorporate these so-called leverage effects in GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Recent research has also found it useful to account for...

This paper investigates international responses of key macroeconomic variables, particularly real exchange rates, to simultaneous shocks to productivity in the traded sector in eight Asian emerging and developing countries. We use panel estimation techniques to construct component submodels in a...

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the...

This paper studies the changes in income inequality in Australia between 1986 and 1999, using the Gini coefficient and Theil's inequality measure. Individuals are divided into various subgroups along several dimensions, namely region of residence, employment status, occupation and age. The...

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We consider model selection criteria which have data-dependent penalties as well...